Valuing Netflix earnings and growth

At the time of this post, the market was valuing Netflix at $37 per share, one year ago the share price was $26.89. The raw return for the stock over the past year was( ($37-26.89)/26.89) = 37.6%

One question to ask was how did Netflix beat the expectations set at the end of last year...?

One interesting article that discusses some of these expectations (at the time) is the article "Netflix looks like a bargain again" written about a year ago, along with expectations about 2008 written in the companion piece "Netflix 2008 Outlook" where the author discusses expected growth rates in subscriptions.

What do you believe the Outlook for 2009 will look like?