Overstock's overstuffed profits...

I hadn't looked at Overstocked for a while, but I came across this article recently "Overstock.com and CEO Patrick Byrne Violate Accounting Rules in Q4 2008 Financial Report" interestingly enough it appears that there is no interest by the company to correct, or in accounting terminology, to restate, their financial reports (see here).

What do you think the market response to firms that restate their earnings to be on average? In a paper published in the Journal of Accounting & Economics, Palmrose, Richardson and Scholz find that over a two day window, these firms experience a negative 9% drop in their share price, with the most negative declines being when the restatement is enforced by the SEC.

My guess is that Overstock is headed for a rough time... what kind of change would this make in our valuation world? Obviously the current period earnings are affected, but does this change our opinions of growth too? How important is it for a firm to 'return to GAAP profitability'?

Overstock's new debt agreements

This article discusses the debt covenants engaged in by Overstock.com in their loan with Wells Fargo.

A debt covenant is basically an agreement over a loan that restricts some of the actions a borrower may engage in. If the covenant is violated then the lender has the right to repossess their loan. Often these covenants will refer to accounting information, including restrictions on leverage ratios. An academic study by Illa Dichev and Doug Skinner found that debt covenants that are violated by healthy firms are not always repossessed, however, if we were to believe Gary Weiss, if Overstock violates their covenant it might be because they are heading to bankruptcy...

Do you agree with Gary Weiss on Overstock's impending doom?

How might the loan affect your forecasts of overstocks operating performance?

Cyber Monday

A big day for Internet retail firms, many of the companies posted sales increases over the prior period this time last year. Overstock, however, didn't post an increase in sales.

From an article on internet retailer:

At Overstock.com, sales fell 3% yesterday compared with the same Monday last year. “Last year Cyber Monday was in November. In November we had gunned marketing, which gave us a bigger November than we should have had, and a weaker December,” says CEO Patrick Byrne. “So our expectation has been to have a hard time matching November’s days this year, but then to make up some ground in December.” read the rest of the article here.

How may this affect your forecast?

What other macro-economic factors may affect your forecast?